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There is no perfect Li-ion battery cathode mix: the three key considerations for battery manufactures are safety, cost and capacity. Phosphate (LFP) based batteries are safer and cheaper to manufacture, whereas Ternary batteries have more capacity, they are more expensive and not as safe as Phosphate based batteries.
The rise of LMFP is imminent as LFP battery capacity is reaching its theoretical energy density capacity, whilst battery manufacturing technology limits the amount of cathode material to be placed in cells. Importantly, LMFP fits strategies of end users being cheaper, safer and providing strong range.
Firebird has completed extensive research in China on the manganese sulphate market and through multiple trips has developed relationships with several Chinese manganese sulphate experts. Following this period of due diligence, the Company is well advanced on an in-house scoping study on assessing processing and location requirements for a plant in China.
Crucially, Firebird is executing this strategy at an opportune time, with 2023 becoming widely recognised within the industry as the beginning of the new era in Li-ion batteries through the commercialisation of LMFP technology.
LMFP is an upgrade from LFP by introducing manganese to replace iron providing the following key benefits:
Existing capacity is 600kt for both battery grade and fertiliser manganese sulphate
| Unit | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Demand in EV | GWh | 879 | 1,183 | 1,626 | 2,152 | 2,739 | 3,385 | 4,106 | 4,853 |
| LFP Penetration Rate | % | 42% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 50% |
| LFP Demand | GWh | 373 | 531 | 750 | 998 | 1,279 | 1,607 | 1,993 | 2,419 |
| Ternary Batteries Penetration Rate | % | 58% | 55% | 54% | 54% | 53% | 53% | 51% | 50% |
| Ternary Batteries Demand | GWh | 506 | 652 | 876 | 1,155 | 1,460 | 1,778 | 2,113 | 2,434 |
| Forecast LMFP to replace LFP | % | 0.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| Forecast LMFP to mix with Ternary | % | 0.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.0% |
| Total LMFP Demand | % | 0.4% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 24.5% | 28.2% | 32.1% |
| LMFP Batteries Demand | GWh | 4 | 46 | 127 | 262 | 491 | 846 | 1,180 | 1,584 |
| Growth rate yoy | % | / | 1157.8% | 177.8% | 106.5% | 87.6% | 72.1% | 39.6% | 34.2% |
| Equivalent MnSO4 required | kt | 3 | 62 | 156 | 343 | 624 | 1,092 | 1,716 | 2,278 |
Source: Soochow Securities 16-8-23
Source: Soochow Securities 16-8-23
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| Unit | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Demand in EV | GWh | 879 | 1,183 | 1,626 | 2,152 | 2,739 | 3,385 | 4,106 | 4,853 |
| LFP Penetration Rate | % | 42% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 49% | 50% |
| LFP Demand | GWh | 373 | 531 | 750 | 998 | 1,279 | 1,607 | 1,993 | 2,419 |
| Ternary Batteries Penetration Rate | % | 58% | 55% | 54% | 54% | 53% | 53% | 51% | 50% |
| Ternary Batteries Demand | GWh | 506 | 652 | 876 | 1,155 | 1,460 | 1,778 | 2,113 | 2,434 |
| Forecast LMFP to replace LFP | % | 0.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| Forecast LMFP to mix with Ternary | % | 0.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.0% |
| Total LMFP Demand | % | 0.4% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 24.5% | 28.2% | 32.1% |
| LMFP Batteries Demand | GWh | 4 | 46 | 127 | 262 | 491 | 846 | 1,180 | 1,584 |
| Growth rate yoy | % | / | 1157.8% | 177.8% | 106.5% | 87.6% | 72.1% | 39.6% | 34.2% |
| Equivalent MnSO4 required | kt | 3 | 62 | 156 | 343 | 624 | 1,092 | 1,716 | 2,278 |
